Severe Weather Sunday Night

QUINCY (WGEM) - We are monitoring the possibility of potentially significant severe weather that is expected to develop early this evening into tonight. A potent upper-level wave will combine with daytime heating this afternoon ahead of a cold front to bring a severe thunderstorm risk to the region this evening and into tonight. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, very large hail of 2″ diameter or greater, and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, are all possible.

The most likely scenario is for thunderstorms to develop across southern Iowa after 5 pm this evening. Those storms should become more numerous and begin propagating southeastward into the viewing area between 5-8 pm, starting with the northern tier first and then thunderstorms are expected to congeal into more of a line (linear mode) and continue to propagate south-southeastward potentially then impacting the central and eastern to southern tiers between 8 pm tonight and 1 am Monday morning. Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over some portions of the viewing area. While a severe weather risk exists for essentially the entire viewing area, the greatest threat at this time is generally across the northeastern 2/3 of the viewing area where a threat level 3 enhanced risk has been posted, but other areas are also in a threat level 1-2 for the duration of the event, so all interested parties should remain alert for later statements and possible warnings.

A risk of flash flooding is also possible, especially across the northern tier. Despite the drought conditions, rapid rainfall over the dry ground can cause flash flooding when it occurs over too short of a period. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for this reason for Scotland, Clark, Lee and Hancock Counties from 7PM Sunday evening through Monday morning.

This has the potential to be a more significant severe weather episode in terms of impact. Be weather aware and have a way to receive severe weather warnings. If severe weather approaches go indoors to the lowest floor of a sturdy structure and stay away from doors and windows. Also, remember if you encounter flooded roadways turn around, don’t drown!